Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 570 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–48%.

Safest bet that day DL 570 SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1448 SFO 22:10 → ATL 06:07 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 570 Delta Flight history →	SFO 06:00	ATL 13:44	10%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 640 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:50	ATL 15:32	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1896 United	SFO 08:52	ATL 16:43	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 233 United	SFO 21:42	ATL 05:37	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 681 Delta	SFO 23:33	ATL 07:17	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 750 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:10	ATL 00:07	25%	8%	0.7%	80%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:38	ATL 19:27	26%	7%	0.7%	83%
UA 702 United Flight history →	SFO 10:49	ATL 18:40	27%	8%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:59	ATL 06:40	29%	5%	0.7%	71%
DL 531 Delta Flight history →	SFO 14:00	ATL 21:49	29%	7%	0.7%	78%
F9 1448 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 22:10	ATL 06:07	48%	17%	1.6%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 49m	96%	79%
American Details →	SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest	55m Phoenix	PHX 08:56 → ATL 15:46AA 883	6h 56m	90%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON