Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 400 at 00:09 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 400 SFO 00:09 → AUS 05:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3729 SFO 13:40 → AUS 19:17 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 400 United	SFO 00:09	AUS 05:34	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1107 United Flight history →	SFO 08:26	AUS 14:02	14%	5%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
UA 2332 United Flight history →	SFO 18:36	AUS 00:16	20%	9%	0.7%	87%
DL 381 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:49	AUS 15:36	23%	6%	0.8%	69%
WN 270 Southwest	SFO 09:11	AUS 14:44	24%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 2150 United	SFO 16:32	AUS 22:16	27%	12%	0.6%	no record
DL 1077 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:59	AUS 23:32	27%	10%	0.8%	47%
UA 2432 United	SFO 11:00	AUS 16:36	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1116 United Flight history →	SFO 13:20	AUS 19:05	28%	10%	0.6%	81%
WN 3729 Southwest	SFO 13:40	AUS 19:17	41%	11%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON