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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 499 at 11:43 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 499 SFO 11:43 → BNA 18:16 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 3771 SFO 22:50 → BNA 05:07 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 499 United Flight history → SFO 11:43 BNA 18:16 25% 9% 0.6% 84%
UA 433 United SFO 14:36 BNA 21:14 29% 12% 0.6% no record
WN 3771 Southwest SFO 22:50 BNA 05:07 35% 10% 0.6% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 57m Denver DEN 09:32 → BNA 13:08UA 355 6h 08m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 1h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205 6h 18m 80% 60%
FrontierDetails → SFO 06:00 → DEN 09:46F9 1230 47m Denver DEN 10:33 → BNA 14:15F9 1402 6h 15m 78% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON