Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 6027 at 20:59 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 6027 SFO 20:59 → BOI 23:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest UA 2364 SFO 12:54 → BOI 15:47 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6027 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:59	BOI 23:55	21%	10%	0.6%	63%
AS 3375 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 19:25	BOI 22:07	26%	10%	0.6%	77%
UA 5720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:38	BOI 19:26	31%	12%	0.6%	74%
UA 2364 United	SFO 12:54	BOI 15:47	32%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON