Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 685 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 685 SFO 06:25 → BUR 07:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3772 SFO 19:05 → BUR 20:25 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 685 Southwest	SFO 06:25	BUR 07:51	5%	2%	4.2%	no record
UA 1756 United Flight history →	SFO 07:12	BUR 08:40	10%	5%	0.6%	97%
UA 2363 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	BUR 09:57	14%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 2001 United	SFO 18:02	BUR 19:28	29%	13%	0.6%	no record
OO 5318 SkyWest	SFO 19:00	BUR 20:31	30%	13%	1.6%	no record
UA 2115 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	BUR 11:49	34%	11%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
UA 794 United	SFO 20:47	BUR 22:18	35%	15%	0.6%	no record
UA 8211 United	SFO 10:29	BUR 11:58	35%	11%	0.6%	no record
UA 626 United Flight history →	SFO 13:50	BUR 15:17	39%	13%	0.6%	69%
UA 2764 United Flight history →	SFO 16:10	BUR 17:36	41%	14%	0.6%	56%
WN 4312 Southwest	SFO 12:30	BUR 13:57	43%	12%	3.0%	no record
WN 3772 Southwest	SFO 19:05	BUR 20:25	46%	22%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON