Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2664 at 09:33 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2664 SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1342 SFO 21:36 → BWI 05:43 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	13%	5%	0.6%	91%
UA 1646 United	SFO 23:07	BWI 07:37	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1342 Southwest	SFO 21:36	BWI 05:43	38%	8%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	7h 31m	86%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON