Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 562 at 12:00, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 562 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	BZN 15:21	30%	8%	0.6%	65%
AS 2062 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 13:56	BZN 17:11	69%	24%	3.8%	31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	1h 28m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BZN 13:10AS 2022 · flown by Horizon	4h 50m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971	4h 27m	96%	81%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	3h 17m Denver	DEN 11:52 → BZN 13:49UA 741	7h 49m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	3h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	6h 16m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	SFO 15:27 → MSP 21:00DL 2159	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	7h 25m	87%	71%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	2h 50m Denver	DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347	7h 31m	93%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 13:26 → SLC 16:14DL 902	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	4h 18m	64%	49%
United Details →	SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596	1h 14m Denver	DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347	5h 54m	71%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON