tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2097 United Flight history → SFO 23:08 CLE 06:59 22% 6% 0.6% 52%
UA 2603 United SFO 10:27 CLE 18:05 23% 7% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:06 → MCO 08:41UA 1947 2h 54m Orlando MCO 11:35 → CLE 14:06UA 486 11h 00m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 51m Dulles IAD 23:02 → CLE 00:32 +1UA 8131 10h 42m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 6h 36m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 10h 30m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 2h 28m Los Angeles LAX 16:23 → CLE 23:51UA 2756 8h 36m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:05UA 505 1h 15m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 8h 09m 88% 80%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:44DL 1392 8h 02m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35AA 2161 2h 40m Philadelphia PHL 17:15 → CLE 19:06AA 5862 · flown by Piedmont 10h 06m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 46m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 7h 29m 68% 62%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:55 → LAX 15:35UA 2610 48m Los Angeles LAX 16:23 → CLE 23:51UA 2756 6h 56m 54% 44%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 27m Chicago ORD 20:02 → CLE 22:28UA 1156 7h 28m 68% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON