tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1329 United SFO 08:19 CMH 15:52 13% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 1160 United SFO 21:42 CMH 05:34 19% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:13 → EWR 08:40UA 2416 1h 58m Newark EWR 10:38 → CMH 12:33UA 3638 · flown by Republic 9h 20m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 20m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 27m Dulles IAD 22:38 → CMH 00:03 +1UA 3646 · flown by Republic 10h 13m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55DL 400 3h 30m Boston BOS 19:25 → CMH 21:50DL 5629 · flown by Republic 11h 40m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 59m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 9h 28m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480 6h 28m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 10h 03m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35AA 2161 1h 33m Philadelphia PHL 16:08 → CMH 17:49AA 2592 8h 49m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 46m Houston IAH 07:20 → CMH 11:02UA 6271 · flown by Mesa 7h 17m 68% 57%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:30 → JFK 20:19DL 668 56m New York JFK 21:15 → CMH 23:31DL 5658 · flown by Republic 9h 01m 66% 52%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 7h 24m 56% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON