Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3774 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 3774 SFO 05:10 → DEN 08:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1784 SFO 14:15 → DEN 17:45 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3774 Southwest	SFO 05:10	DEN 08:40	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1479 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	DEN 08:35	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 2448 United	SFO 06:14	DEN 09:52	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1230 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 06:00	DEN 09:46	12%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 1469 United	SFO 09:01	DEN 12:35	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 4310 Frontier	SFO 09:38	DEN 13:16	21%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 2436 United Flight history →	SFO 18:56	DEN 22:44	21%	9%	0.6%	88%
UA 301 United Flight history →	SFO 21:00	DEN 00:47	22%	8%	0.6%	86%
UA 2117 United	SFO 19:39	DEN 23:13	27%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 8848 Delta	SFO 20:47	DEN 00:13	28%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 1604 United Flight history →	SFO 10:40	DEN 14:23	31%	10%	0.6%	68%
WN 3798 Southwest	SFO 20:55	DEN 00:28	34%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 540 United Flight history →	SFO 12:43	DEN 16:35	35%	11%	0.6%	77%worse than usual
WN 3776 Southwest	SFO 10:57	DEN 14:27	41%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1835 United	SFO 16:23	DEN 19:55	44%	15%	0.6%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	SFO 14:20	DEN 18:11	45%	15%	0.6%	71%worse than usual
F9 1094 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 12:02	DEN 15:38	46%	17%	0.9%	43%
WN 1784 Southwest	SFO 14:15	DEN 17:45	54%	16%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON