Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1149 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1149 SFO 07:00 → EWR 15:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2480 SFO 13:11 → EWR 21:29 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1149 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	EWR 15:49	11%	3%	1.1%	91%
UA 517 United	SFO 06:06	EWR 14:57	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 2416 United Flight history →	SFO 00:13	EWR 08:40	16%	3%	1.0%	75%
UA 435 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	EWR 16:53	24%	7%	1.0%	83%
UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	28%	8%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:50	32%	11%	1.0%	67%
UA 1141 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	EWR 07:00	34%	9%	1.2%	83%worse than usual
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	36%	11%	0.9%	70%
UA 274 United Flight history →	SFO 11:15	EWR 20:10	41%	15%	1.0%	76%worse than usual
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	42%	13%	0.9%	57%
UA 2467 United	SFO 10:27	EWR 19:00	44%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 13:11	EWR 21:29	52%	16%	1.0%	61%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:04 → RDU 08:10UA 2080	52m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 09:02 → EWR 10:48UA 1669	7h 44m	83%	72%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 14m	94%	63%
United Details →	SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604	1h 12m Denver	DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715	7h 49m	82%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON