Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2431 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2431 SFO 06:58 → FLL 15:33 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 578 SFO 10:29 → FLL 19:11 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2431 United	SFO 06:58	FLL 15:33	14%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 2469 United	SFO 21:19	FLL 05:50	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
B6 278 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 22:40	FLL 07:22	33%	15%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
B6 578 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 10:29	FLL 19:11	34%	12%	1.0%	82%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 23m Denver	DEN 09:58 → FLL 16:08UA 1214	8h 08m	97%	75%
United Details →	SFO 08:55 → IAH 15:07UA 2498	1h 13m Houston	IAH 16:20 → FLL 20:07UA 277	8h 12m	91%	64%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168	1h 02m Houston	IAH 11:57 → FLL 15:34UA 1982	7h 34m	92%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON