Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1175 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1175 SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 833 SFO 19:51 → HNL 22:33 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1175 United Flight history →	SFO 09:20	HNL 11:43	13%	5%	0.5%	93%
UA 638 United Flight history →	SFO 19:00	HNL 21:43	22%	8%	0.6%	88%
UA 1509 United Flight history →	SFO 16:45	HNL 19:25	22%	9%	0.5%	85%
UA 2380 United Flight history →	SFO 10:45	HNL 13:20	23%	9%	0.5%	78%
UA 300 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	HNL 16:18	23%	9%	0.5%	84%
AS 811 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:30	HNL 11:10	26%	6%	1.7%	68%
AS 833 Alaska	SFO 19:51	HNL 22:33	30%	9%	1.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34AS 693	1h 17m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057	7h 40m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:03 → LIH 09:43AS 789	1h 31m Lihue	LIH 11:14 → HNL 11:53AS 1054	7h 50m	93%	70%
Alaska Details →	SFO 09:23 → OGG 11:47AS 979	1h 16m Kahului	OGG 13:03 → HNL 13:58AS 1105	7h 35m	89%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON