Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2861 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2861 SFO 06:42 → IAD 14:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1791 SFO 14:39 → IAD 22:31 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2861 United	SFO 06:42	IAD 14:46	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 599 United	SFO 08:07	IAD 16:08	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 705 United Flight history →	SFO 21:42	IAD 06:03	17%	6%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
UA 2111 United Flight history →	SFO 23:20	IAD 07:48	19%	5%	0.7%	87%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	23%	8%	0.7%	78%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	23%	8%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
UA 755 United Flight history →	SFO 12:54	IAD 21:22	24%	9%	0.6%	78%
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:55	25%	7%	0.7%	67%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 14:39	IAD 22:31	28%	10%	0.6%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 13:26 → SLC 16:14DL 902	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	7h 03m	78%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON