Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 686 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 686 SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 8102 SFO 16:23 → IAH 22:16 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 686 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	IAH 13:11	7%	4%	0.7%	95%
UA 2168 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	IAH 10:55	8%	2%	0.8%	97%
UA 2498 United Flight history →	SFO 08:55	IAH 15:07	12%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 604 United Flight history →	SFO 00:45	IAH 06:34	14%	4%	0.8%	83%
UA 505 United Flight history →	SFO 00:05	IAH 05:52	18%	5%	0.8%	82%
UA 2464 United	SFO 18:27	IAH 00:24	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1649 United	SFO 17:09	IAH 23:06	24%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 2831 United	SFO 14:36	IAH 20:41	25%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 1387 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	IAH 18:27	26%	11%	0.7%	78%
UA 1259 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAH 16:52	27%	9%	0.7%	61%
UA 8102 United	SFO 16:23	IAH 22:16	30%	10%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:29 → IAH 13:31DL 1532	5h 41m	91%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON