tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Frontier via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1726 United SFO 23:35 IND 07:11 19% 8% 0.6% no record
UA 2274 United SFO 10:01 IND 17:11 33% 9% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:13 → EWR 08:40UA 2416 3h 14m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 10h 54m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35AA 2161 3h 44m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 11h 45m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 6h 33m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:05UA 505 1h 20m Houston IAH 07:25 → IND 10:54UA 6162 · flown by Mesa 7h 49m 91% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522 6h 35m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657 10h 03m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55DL 400 1h 50m Boston BOS 17:45 → IND 20:34DL 5616 · flown by Republic 10h 24m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 00m Houston IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687 7h 25m 92% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 56m Seattle SEA 09:09 → IND 16:16AS 500 7h 13m 73% 52%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:54 → IAD 21:22UA 755 54m Dulles IAD 22:16 → IND 23:59UA 4021 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 71% 46%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 7h 05m 56% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON