tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 1593 at 13:35, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1593 United SFO 13:35 JAC 16:58 30% 6% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 25m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 15:38 → JAC 16:45DL 509 5h 50m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 6h 46m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 52m Los Angeles LAX 10:31 → JAC 14:03UA 1041 7h 03m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:07 → LAX 08:39AA 1097 1h 16m Los Angeles LAX 09:55 → JAC 13:18AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest 5h 11m 86% 68%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:26 → SLC 16:14DL 902 2h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 5h 11m 95% 66%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 1h 57m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 6h 13m 95% 60%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 33m Denver DEN 19:08 → JAC 20:44UA 785 7h 01m 92% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 57m Denver DEN 19:08 → JAC 20:44UA 785 5h 24m 50% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON