Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 405 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 405 SFO 07:00 → JFK 15:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 631 SFO 13:19 → JFK 21:31 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 405 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	JFK 15:43	7%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 234 American Flight history →	SFO 06:15	JFK 15:02	8%	3%	1.2%	92%
B6 116 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 06:00	JFK 14:38	12%	3%	0.9%	89%
AS 20 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	JFK 16:08	13%	4%	0.9%	80%
AS 211 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:19	JFK 14:29	13%	3%	0.9%	92%
B6 316 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 07:52	JFK 16:29	13%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 276 American Flight history →	SFO 21:20	JFK 06:00	23%	6%	1.3%	87%
DL 606 Delta	SFO 09:13	JFK 17:24	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 20:40	JFK 05:22	25%	10%	1.0%	74%
DL 319 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:35	JFK 06:48	27%	6%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
AS 40 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 22:18	JFK 06:31	27%	5%	1.0%	88%worse than usual
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:30	JFK 20:19	29%	12%	0.8%	76%
B6 216 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 13:15	JFK 22:02	29%	11%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:05	JFK 00:16	30%	8%	0.8%	77%
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 14:35	JFK 23:20	32%	10%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
AS 42 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:38	JFK 22:26	32%	11%	0.9%	68%
AA 16 American Flight history →	SFO 10:15	JFK 19:04	33%	10%	1.1%	75%
AA 148 American Flight history →	SFO 14:45	JFK 23:42	34%	12%	1.1%	73%
AA 166 American Flight history →	SFO 12:10	JFK 21:00	36%	13%	1.1%	74%
DL 631 Delta	SFO 13:19	JFK 21:31	36%	11%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 15:27 → MSP 21:00DL 2159	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 23:15 → JFK 01:32 +1DL 2692	7h 05m	95%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON