Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 693 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–23%.

Safest bet that day AS 693 SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 222 SFO 14:39 → KOA 17:18 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 693 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:00	KOA 09:34	7%	3%	0.6%	96%
UA 1721 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	KOA 10:40	9%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 1723 United Flight history →	SFO 18:52	KOA 21:41	16%	7%	0.5%	83%
AS 222 Alaska	SFO 14:39	KOA 17:18	23%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:52 → HNL 10:29AS 811	1h 32m Honolulu	HNL 12:01 → KOA 13:03AS 1108	8h 11m	94%	75%
Alaska Details →	SFO 10:00 → OGG 12:32AS 979	1h 31m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	7h 39m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON