tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 00:05, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:05UA 505 1h 55m Houston IAH 08:00 → LGA 12:31UA 1143 9h 26m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 49m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 14m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 14m Houston IAH 09:48 → LGA 14:29UA 678 10h 44m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 58m 90% 73%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 9h 37m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 53m Detroit DTW 14:02 → LGA 15:53DL 2602 7h 13m 91% 71%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:49DL 433 8h 49m 95% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:20 → BOS 21:02DL 977 58m Boston BOS 22:00 → LGA 23:23DL 5840 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 64% 52%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:47 → DFW 13:19AA 304 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:06 → LGA 18:47AA 1806 8h 00m 61% 38%
JetBlueDetails → SFO 10:29 → FLL 19:12B6 578 48m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:00 → LGA 22:59B6 572 9h 30m 53% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON