Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 09m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:05 → LGB 16:06DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest	6h 11m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 11:23 → LGB 14:04AS 717	8h 01m	100%	66%
Alaska Details →	SFO 13:48 → SEA 15:51AS 656	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 18:16 → LGB 20:57AS 1310	7h 09m	95%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:14 → SEA 17:16AS 630	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 18:16 → LGB 20:57AS 1310	5h 43m	47%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON