tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 37% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2072 United SFO 10:50 MCI 16:21 27% 7% 0.8% no record
UA 1515 United Flight history → SFO 16:29 MCI 22:15 30% 12% 0.6% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 9h 47m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:05UA 505 1h 59m Houston IAH 08:04 → MCI 10:23UA 2009 8h 18m 97% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 2h 53m Portland PDX 11:55 → MCI 17:19AS 225 7h 59m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → MCI 15:45UA 5426 · flown by SkyWest 7h 45m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 7h 14m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159 5h 30m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 07m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 2h 45m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 9h 14m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:14 → SEA 17:16AS 630 1h 08m Seattle SEA 18:24 → MCI 23:48AS 497 6h 34m 63% 46%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → MCI 00:13 +1DL 2993 5h 06m 47% 31%
FrontierDetails → SFO 14:20 → LAS 16:06F9 2486 48m Las Vegas LAS 16:54 → MCI 21:50F9 4506 5h 30m 37% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON