Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 29–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1219 SFO 21:09 → MFR 22:34 · 29% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5706 SFO 16:22 → MFR 17:51 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1219 United	SFO 21:09	MFR 22:34	29%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 2322 United Flight history →	SFO 10:37	MFR 12:04	31%	9%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
UA 5706 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:22	MFR 17:51	35%	12%	1.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON