Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1769 at 22:54 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1769 SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 773 SFO 11:41 → MIA 20:32 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1769 United Flight history →	SFO 22:54	MIA 07:39	23%	6%	0.7%	86%
AA 1842 American	SFO 22:09	MIA 06:50	23%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 1458 United	SFO 12:24	MIA 21:10	34%	11%	0.9%	no record
AA 2799 American Flight history →	SFO 08:37	MIA 17:10	35%	11%	4.3%	72%
AA 773 American	SFO 11:41	MIA 20:32	36%	14%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	1h 18m Houston	IAH 07:52 → MIA 11:45UA 2753	8h 00m	92%	72%
American Details →	SFO 19:17 → PHX 21:33AA 1914	1h 32m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654	8h 11m	80%	60%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	54m Denver	DEN 09:29 → MIA 15:24UA 1418	7h 24m	91%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON