Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5627 at 17:27 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 5627 SFO 17:27 → MRY 18:41 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OO 750 SFO 10:34 → MRY 11:32 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5627 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:27	MRY 18:41	19%	10%	0.8%	79%
OO 410 SkyWest	SFO 21:13	MRY 22:11	21%	8%	0.8%	no record
OO 5920 SkyWest	SFO 14:06	MRY 15:17	28%	13%	0.7%	no record
OO 750 SkyWest	SFO 10:34	MRY 11:32	34%	16%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON