Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 5422 at 12:15, with a 41% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5422 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:15	MSO 15:38	41%	14%	0.7%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 45m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	3h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	7h 38m	96%	80%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 49m Denver	DEN 11:24 → MSO 13:36UA 2357	7h 36m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	2h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:49 → MSO 00:24 +1DL 1824	6h 17m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620	3h 56m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → MSO 14:35AS 660	7h 32m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:14 → SEA 17:16AS 630	2h 20m Seattle	SEA 19:36 → MSO 22:02AS 604	5h 48m	99%	63%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	2h 56m Denver	DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092	7h 57m	93%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 15:27 → MSP 21:00DL 2159	52m Minneapolis	MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610	7h 17m	68%	46%
Alaska Details →	SFO 16:20 → SEA 18:22AS 68	1h 14m Seattle	SEA 19:36 → MSO 22:02AS 604	4h 42m	64%	41%
Alaska Details →	SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327	54m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → MSO 14:35AS 660	4h 35m	57%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON