tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2119 United SFO 07:17 MSY 13:33 11% 4% 0.8% no record
UA 1244 United SFO 16:32 MSY 22:47 32% 13% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 6h 39m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:05UA 505 1h 25m Houston IAH 07:30 → MSY 08:46UA 491 6h 41m 92% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11UA 686 1h 51m Houston IAH 15:02 → MSY 16:32UA 2738 7h 27m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 00m Houston IAH 09:34 → MSY 10:49UA 575 8h 04m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 25m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 00m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 14m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224 10h 05m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:55 → IAH 15:07UA 2498 1h 33m Houston IAH 16:40 → MSY 17:59UA 6173 · flown by Mesa 7h 04m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 1h 10m Denver DEN 17:45 → MSY 21:34UA 1541 6h 51m 71% 38%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 36m Chicago ORD 20:11 → MSY 22:46UA 1761 8h 46m 72% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON