tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Omaha on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2839 United SFO 18:46 OMA 00:17 26% 11% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:02 → OMA 13:27DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest 5h 37m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 38m Denver DEN 10:13 → OMA 12:58UA 1633 5h 58m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 2h 51m Detroit DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364 9h 48m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 04m Houston IAH 11:59 → OMA 14:25UA 1936 7h 25m 93% 73%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 8h 06m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:00 → CLT 13:15AA 3082 1h 51m Charlotte CLT 15:06 → OMA 16:48AA 2278 9h 48m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAH 16:52UA 1259 3h 03m Houston IAH 19:55 → OMA 22:29UA 8246 9h 39m 99% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 46m Salt Lake City SLC 13:30 → OMA 16:51DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 67% 59%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 50m Seattle SEA 09:03 → OMA 14:16AS 312 6h 13m 56% 44%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 57m Chicago ORD 15:47 → OMA 17:28UA 2207 7h 13m 71% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON