Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2614 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 2614 SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2358 SFO 13:41 → ORD 19:48 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2614 American Flight history →	SFO 06:04	ORD 12:31	12%	4%	1.1%	92%
UA 2091 United Flight history →	SFO 06:05	ORD 12:41	12%	3%	0.8%	93%
UA 2847 United	SFO 00:34	ORD 06:46	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2343 United	SFO 04:57	ORD 11:06	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3250 American Flight history →	SFO 06:57	ORD 13:16	17%	6%	1.0%	89%
UA 1568 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	ORD 14:50	25%	10%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
UA 368 United Flight history →	SFO 23:30	ORD 05:57	27%	8%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
UA 1958 United Flight history →	SFO 18:49	ORD 00:59	28%	11%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
AA 2113 American Flight history →	SFO 23:01	ORD 05:03	30%	9%	1.0%	60%
AA 2814 American	SFO 09:15	ORD 15:39	31%	15%	1.7%	no record
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SFO 22:38	ORD 05:01	32%	9%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
AA 2817 American	SFO 17:18	ORD 23:38	38%	15%	1.3%	no record
UA 1887 United	SFO 16:39	ORD 22:48	44%	17%	0.7%	no record
UA 1147 United	SFO 15:11	ORD 21:34	45%	18%	0.7%	no record
AA 2642 American	SFO 15:11	ORD 21:39	46%	21%	1.3%	no record
UA 2827 United	SFO 10:23	ORD 16:41	49%	18%	0.9%	no record
AA 2885 American	SFO 10:49	ORD 16:53	51%	19%	1.7%	no record
UA 1922 United	SFO 13:59	ORD 20:19	51%	21%	0.9%	no record
UA 2317 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	ORD 18:35	52%	21%	0.8%	50%
AA 2358 American	SFO 13:41	ORD 19:48	54%	24%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON