Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 2249 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 08:20	PAE 10:25	16%	4%	0.0%	84%
AS 2083 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 20:07	PAE 22:12	54%	28%	4.0%	46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	1h 50m Portland	PDX 10:52 → PAE 11:53AS 2126 · flown by Horizon	4h 33m	96%	86%
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:38 → SNA 17:18AS 3492 · flown by SkyWest	1h 38m Santa Ana	SNA 18:56 → PAE 21:40AS 2116 · flown by Horizon	6h 02m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON