Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2161 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 2161 SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1298 SFO 12:54 → PHL 21:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2161 American Flight history →	SFO 06:00	PHL 14:35	10%	3%	0.8%	93%
UA 2854 United Flight history →	SFO 23:20	PHL 07:50	17%	6%	0.8%	83%
AA 2722 American Flight history →	SFO 07:40	PHL 16:10	19%	5%	0.8%	71%
UA 2824 United	SFO 09:02	PHL 17:14	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 3166 American Flight history →	SFO 21:44	PHL 06:18	21%	6%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
AA 1845 American	SFO 09:46	PHL 18:17	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1298 United	SFO 12:54	PHL 21:32	28%	12%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 12m	93%	77%
American Details →	SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614	54m Chicago	ORD 13:25 → PHL 16:52AA 830	7h 48m	85%	52%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	1h 19m Denver	DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510	7h 47m	82%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON