Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1562 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 1562 SFO 06:15 → PHX 08:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3818 SFO 19:00 → PHX 21:03 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1562 Southwest	SFO 06:15	PHX 08:17	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 6404 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 05:50	PHX 08:01	8%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 2374 United Flight history →	SFO 08:13	PHX 10:17	16%	4%	0.8%	92%
AA 2414 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	PHX 10:22	18%	6%	0.8%	84%
OO 5460 SkyWest	SFO 12:41	PHX 15:03	23%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 2334 American	SFO 12:20	PHX 14:25	29%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 1653 United	SFO 21:17	PHX 23:32	30%	12%	0.8%	no record
AA 1837 American	SFO 15:55	PHX 18:02	32%	12%	0.6%	no record
UA 574 United Flight history →	SFO 16:25	PHX 18:39	33%	13%	0.6%	73%
UA 1375 United Flight history →	SFO 19:42	PHX 21:43	35%	14%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
AA 1914 American Flight history →	SFO 19:17	PHX 21:33	36%	13%	0.8%	75%worse than usual
WN 4868 Southwest	SFO 11:25	PHX 13:27	36%	10%	0.6%	no record
F9 2638 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 13:15	PHX 15:25	44%	16%	2.0%	60%
WN 3818 Southwest	SFO 19:00	PHX 21:03	46%	16%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON