tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1954 United SFO 08:02 PIT 15:46 11% 5% 0.5% no record
UA 1341 United SFO 21:42 PIT 05:52 15% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 10h 12m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 40m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 30m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 7h 16m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 19m Dulles IAD 22:30 → PIT 23:36UA 3540 · flown by Republic 9h 46m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:15 → JFK 15:02AA 234 1h 49m New York JFK 16:51 → PIT 18:38AA 4734 · flown by Republic 9h 23m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 1h 21m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → PIT 16:51UA 2039 7h 51m 93% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 05m Houston IAH 12:00 → PIT 15:56UA 315 7h 56m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 8h 08m 95% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON