Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 717 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 717 SFO 08:26 → PSP 10:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 3462 SFO 10:38 → PSP 12:17 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 717 United Flight history →	SFO 08:26	PSP 10:03	11%	5%	0.7%	95%
UA 5705 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:38	PSP 20:26	25%	12%	1.5%	83%
UA 342 United	SFO 13:35	PSP 15:11	26%	12%	0.6%	no record
OO 5534 SkyWest	SFO 21:25	PSP 23:20	27%	14%	1.4%	no record
AS 3356 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:00	PSP 21:39	30%	13%	1.5%	61%
OO 3462 SkyWest	SFO 10:38	PSP 12:17	32%	14%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON