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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2080 at 00:04 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2080 SFO 00:04 → RDU 07:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2199 SFO 14:37 → RDU 23:02 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2080 United Flight history → SFO 00:04 RDU 07:57 10% 4% 0.6% 91%
UA 2816 United SFO 08:06 RDU 16:11 15% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 2199 United SFO 14:37 RDU 23:02 33% 9% 0.7% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 14m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 7h 16m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:26 → SLC 16:14DL 902 1h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 17:51 → RDU 23:52DL 402 7h 26m 87% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON