Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5394 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 5394 SFO 08:13 → RNO 09:27 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2690 SFO 16:28 → RNO 17:40 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5394 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:13	RNO 09:27	18%	6%	1.4%	88%
UA 581 United	SFO 18:53	RNO 20:09	28%	12%	0.7%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	SFO 22:45	RNO 23:58	31%	11%	0.7%	64%
UA 1845 United	SFO 10:32	RNO 11:38	32%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 2690 United	SFO 16:28	RNO 17:40	32%	11%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON