tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2365 United SFO 12:24 SAT 18:05 27% 10% 0.6% no record
UA 8140 United SFO 16:20 SAT 21:56 29% 11% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 05m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 8h 01m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123 5h 46m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 5h 43m 93% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 9h 11m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 57m Houston IAH 14:52 → SAT 16:12UA 2030 9h 12m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:05UA 505 3h 27m Houston IAH 09:32 → SAT 10:41UA 1371 8h 36m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:00 → LAX 08:30DL 1598 1h 25m Los Angeles LAX 09:55 → SAT 14:53DL 2568 5h 53m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 9h 11m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 1h 04m Denver DEN 17:39 → SAT 20:54UA 2819 6h 11m 68% 43%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 23m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 8h 57m 67% 30%
AmericanDetails → SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406 5h 57m 55% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON