Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 28–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2866 SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 5464 SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2866 United Flight history →	SFO 21:23	SBA 22:45	28%	11%	0.9%	76%
UA 1578 United Flight history →	SFO 10:29	SBA 11:52	29%	10%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
OO 5806 SkyWest	SFO 19:04	SBA 20:27	30%	11%	1.3%	no record
OO 5936 SkyWest	SFO 16:35	SBA 18:08	33%	14%	1.1%	no record
UA 5464 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:50	SBA 15:17	37%	16%	1.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON