Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1331 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1331 SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 902 SFO 13:26 → SLC 16:14 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1331 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:50	SLC 08:40	6%	2%	0.7%	96%
OO 5908 SkyWest	SFO 09:35	SLC 12:37	15%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 920 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:55	SLC 12:44	21%	5%	0.7%	78%
UA 5753 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:54	SLC 23:59	25%	15%	1.2%	66%
UA 5590 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 19:00	SLC 22:12	30%	13%	1.5%	81%worse than usual
UA 520 United	SFO 14:11	SLC 17:03	37%	15%	0.7%	no record
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:07	SLC 20:00	39%	11%	1.5%	71%
DL 670 Delta	SFO 19:24	SLC 22:15	39%	13%	1.2%	no record
DL 902 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:26	SLC 16:14	41%	10%	0.8%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON