Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5220 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 5220 SFO 08:17 → SMF 09:25 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 1862 SFO 20:56 → SMF 21:58 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5220 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:17	SMF 09:25	19%	7%	1.0%	83%
UA 5796 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:28	SMF 19:36	24%	9%	0.9%	78%
OO 4790 SkyWest	SFO 12:21	SMF 13:23	35%	12%	0.9%	no record
UA 1862 United	SFO 20:56	SMF 21:58	35%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON