Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 3440 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day AS 3440 SFO 06:57 → SNA 08:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 3048 SFO 10:30 → SNA 12:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 06:57	SNA 08:37	13%	4%	1.1%	92%
OO 5405 SkyWest	SFO 07:11	SNA 08:51	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 589 United Flight history →	SFO 19:10	SNA 20:55	21%	8%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
OO 5763 SkyWest	SFO 08:37	SNA 10:17	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:14	SNA 09:54	22%	7%	1.0%	79%
AS 3465 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:47	SNA 22:27	23%	6%	1.3%	79%
UA 2441 United Flight history →	SFO 12:31	SNA 14:20	25%	10%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
UA 643 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	SNA 12:06	26%	10%	0.7%	82%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:48	SNA 17:26	28%	8%	1.1%	85%worse than usual
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:38	SNA 17:18	28%	10%	1.0%	71%
OO 5597 SkyWest	SFO 16:57	SNA 18:53	30%	10%	1.0%	no record
AS 269 Alaska	SFO 17:04	SNA 18:29	32%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:39	SNA 15:31	32%	10%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
OO 3210 SkyWest	SFO 11:33	SNA 13:13	34%	10%	0.9%	no record
OO 3048 SkyWest	SFO 10:30	SNA 12:10	35%	11%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON