tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1905 United SFO 12:54 STL 18:59 28% 9% 0.6% no record
WN 232 Southwest SFO 13:10 STL 18:59 41% 9% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:05UA 505 1h 55m Houston IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 8h 02m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11UA 686 2h 20m Houston IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa 8h 37m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 50m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 43m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 3h 36m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 9h 44m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 10h 15m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAH 16:52UA 1259 3h 38m Houston IAH 20:30 → STL 22:45UA 6187 · flown by Mesa 9h 55m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 59m Denver DEN 17:34 → STL 20:43UA 1422 6h 00m 63% 36%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → STL 00:41 +1DL 2666 5h 34m 47% 32%
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:02 → STL 19:53AA 2761 6h 29m 58% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON