Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 5986 at 18:55, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5986 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:55	SUN 21:51	22%	7%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SFO 06:52 → LAX 08:21UA 1260	3h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 11:37 → SUN 15:02UA 5379 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	99%	82%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	2h 50m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	7h 43m	93%	63%
Alaska Details →	SFO 11:02 → SEA 13:05AS 580	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	6h 59m	98%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m	67%	57%
United Details →	SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596	1h 14m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	6h 06m	71%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON