tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 00:05, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1702 United SFO 21:04 TPA 05:13 23% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 1484 United SFO 11:07 TPA 19:17 27% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:13 → EWR 08:40UA 2416 3h 51m Newark EWR 12:31 → TPA 15:36UA 1273 12h 23m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:05UA 505 1h 20m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 7h 40m 91% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 7h 14m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 43m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 8h 32m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 3h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077 9h 54m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 58m Detroit DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243 8h 05m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 09:39 → TPA 17:40UA 392 8h 40m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 9h 51m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 20:05 → LAX 21:40DL 1559 54m Los Angeles LAX 22:34 → TPA 06:16 +1DL 910 7h 11m 60% 42%
UnitedDetails → SFO 11:15 → EWR 20:10UA 274 58m Newark EWR 21:08 → TPA 00:14 +1UA 8100 9h 59m 62% 42%
JetBlueDetails → SFO 11:21 → BOS 20:01B6 1034 1h 02m Boston BOS 21:03 → TPA 00:22 +1B6 591 10h 01m 66% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON