Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4083 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4083 SGF 06:53 → CLT 10:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 5466 SGF 18:26 → CLT 21:35 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4083 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 06:53	CLT 10:15	11%	4%	2.4%	96%
MQ 4170 Envoy	SGF 11:28	CLT 14:34	20%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 5670 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SGF 16:22	CLT 19:31	28%	10%	2.1%	88%worse than usual
AA 5466 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SGF 18:26	CLT 21:35	29%	9%	2.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON