Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5895 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 5895 SGF 05:50 → DEN 06:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5404 SGF 17:01 → DEN 18:25 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5895 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 05:50	DEN 06:57	8%	10%	0.9%	89%
UA 5898 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 09:03	DEN 10:20	14%	12%	0.7%	86%
OO 4770 SkyWest	SGF 11:28	DEN 13:04	17%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 5541 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 13:33	DEN 14:48	23%	13%	0.8%	79%
UA 5404 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 17:01	DEN 18:25	40%	15%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON