Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5767 at 09:02 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day OO 5767 SGF 09:02 → IAH 11:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4671 SGF 15:07 → IAH 17:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5767 SkyWest	SGF 09:02	IAH 11:04	18%	13%	1.1%	no record
OO 5532 SkyWest	SGF 06:17	IAH 08:20	19%	15%	1.8%	no record
OO 4671 SkyWest	SGF 15:07	IAH 17:10	29%	13%	0.8%	no record
UA 4852 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 06:15	IAH 08:17	15%	4%	0.9%	85%
UA 4996 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 17:08	IAH 19:10	22%	11%	2.2%	78%
UA 4574 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:15	IAH 17:17	28%	14%	3.3%	72%
UA 4840 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:05	IAH 17:10	46%	24%	0.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON