tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Springfield). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SGF 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5895 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 17m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → SGF 06:00 → ATL 08:54DL 1680 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 02m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SGF 06:15 → IAH 08:17UA 4852 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 38m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → SGF 05:01 → DFW 06:38AA 3842 · flown by Envoy 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:49 → LAS 09:38AA 1550 6h 37m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → SGF 09:03 → DEN 10:20UA 5898 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 5h 21m 87% 70%
DeltaDetails → SGF 11:32 → ATL 14:27DL 4707 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711 8h 20m 96% 66%
AmericanDetails → SGF 06:53 → CLT 10:15AA 4083 · flown by Envoy 1h 28m Charlotte CLT 11:43 → LAS 13:22AA 2470 8h 29m 94% 65%
AmericanDetails → SGF 06:57 → DFW 08:27AA 3976 · flown by Envoy 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:32 → LAS 11:21AA 1482 6h 24m 96% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SGF 15:05 → IAH 17:10UA 4840 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 29m Houston IAH 18:39 → LAS 19:57UA 2406 6h 52m 71% 49%
AmericanDetails → SGF 14:31 → DFW 16:07AA 3494 · flown by Envoy 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:58 → LAS 17:48AA 2864 5h 17m 66% 31%
AmericanDetails → SGF 11:23 → DFW 12:54AA 4152 · flown by Envoy 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:40 → LAS 14:28AA 2376 5h 05m 48% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON