Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 4742 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 49–51%.

Safest bet that day OO 4742 SGF 06:02 → ORD 07:45 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5686 SGF 15:06 → ORD 16:50 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 4742 SkyWest	SGF 06:02	ORD 07:45	14%	12%	2.1%	no record
AA 4129 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:15	ORD 09:05	19%	9%	1.6%	83%
MQ 3584 Envoy	SGF 10:34	ORD 12:19	23%	10%	1.7%	no record
OO 5407 SkyWest	SGF 11:28	ORD 13:15	34%	16%	2.7%	no record
MQ 3544 Envoy	SGF 15:47	ORD 17:44	47%	22%	3.0%	no record
MQ 3594 Envoy	SGF 19:45	ORD 21:29	49%	19%	4.3%	no record
OO 4732 SkyWest	SGF 18:27	ORD 20:09	51%	28%	7.5%	no record
OO 5686 SkyWest	SGF 15:06	ORD 16:50	52%	27%	4.9%	no record
UA 4421 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 07:45	ORD 09:40	19%	9%	4.9%	81%
UA 4525 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 11:19	ORD 13:12	33%	18%	3.3%	67%
UA 4466 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:07	ORD 17:02	35%	17%	5.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON