Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5561 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5561 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 08:45	DEN 10:19	21%	6%	0.7%	82%
OO 5509 SkyWest	SHV 16:31	DEN 18:24	37%	12%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Shreveport). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SHV 17:56 → IAH 19:10UA 5959 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Houston	IAH 22:09 → DEN 23:34UA 685	6h 38m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SHV 06:00 → ATL 09:00DL 3504 · flown by SkyWest	55m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995	6h 05m	90%	76%
Delta Details →	SHV 07:46 → ATL 10:38DL 4117 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 14m	91%	72%
American Details →	SHV 06:55 → CLT 10:13AA 4901 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m Charlotte	CLT 11:56 → DEN 13:36AA 1662	7h 41m	87%	70%
Delta Details →	SHV 17:16 → ATL 20:13DL 4111 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956	8h 07m	94%	67%
American Details →	SHV 06:00 → DFW 07:14AA 6419 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → DEN 09:42AA 1756	4h 42m	89%	67%
American Details →	SHV 09:55 → DFW 11:09AA 4009 · flown by Envoy	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:17 → DEN 14:21AA 420	5h 26m	100%	64%
United Details →	SHV 15:35 → IAH 16:50UA 5837 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Houston	IAH 18:19 → DEN 20:14UA 1654	5h 39m	90%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SHV 12:59 → ATL 15:55DL 3507 · flown by SkyWest	48m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	5h 57m	75%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON